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Experts warn that the United States could see up to 150,000 additional COVID-19 deaths by February as a new strain spreads.

Experts warn that the United States could see up to 150,000 additional COVID-19 deaths by February as a new strain spreads.

The United States set a new record for hospitalization due to the disease transmitted by the Coronavirus (COVID-19) on Wednesday, as experts said that a new, more contagious alternative makes it all the more important to put the country’s disappointing vaccine program on the right track.

The United States added at least 238,999 new cases on Tuesday and at least 3,664 people have died, according to it. New York Times tracker. The United States recorded an average of 219,684 new cases every day last week, confirming the worst-case forecasts of experts who said the holiday season will lead to new increases.

There were a record 131,195 patients with COVID-19 in US hospitals on Tuesday, According to the COVID Tracking Project, Breaking the record of 128,210 records the day before. The United States continues to lead the world through cases, at 21 million, according to Data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, By death, it is at 359,077, or about a fifth of the global total.

The new type of virus, which first appeared in the United Kingdom where it has spread, has been found across the United States and is likely to spread in communities.


We should expect, without further measures, that as the new strain spreads, we will see 10 million additional infections in the United States between now and the end of February and during that time, we can easily see 100,000 to 150,000 additional deaths. ”


Dr. Ashish K. Jha, Dean and Professor of Health Services, Policy and Practice, Brown University School of Public Health

Dr. Ashish K. Jha, Dean and Professor of Health Services, Policy and Practice at Brown University College at Brown University: “At this point, it is almost certain that it is so widespread that it cannot be contained in any particular country or region of our country” Public Health, The current situation. “This new form is significantly more contagious, threatening a rapid increase in new case rates and a more deadly and devastating epidemic. This requires an urgent rethink of our current policy responses.”

Jha said the variant was named B.1.1.7 and was estimated to be 40% to 70% more contagious than the original virus, although it does not yet appear to make people sicker. Officials expect vaccines that have so far been granted emergency use authorization for use in the pandemic. A strain that Jha has called the “close cousin” of the new variant has been found in South Africa and the United Kingdom but has not yet been discovered in the United States.

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He said the significant increase in infection rates would translate into a much more deadly pandemic.

“ An epidemiologist (Adam Kucharsky, Associate Professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine), compares a 50% increase in disease severity with a 50% increase in infection, in a hypothetical case in a city of 10,000 more infections, leading to The number of deaths increases fivefold in a month – because a low death rate for a very large number of cases results in much more deaths than a higher death rate but fewer cases, ”said Jha.

The new variant is estimated to account for about 1% of all infections now, but is likely to account for the vast majority by March.

“We should expect, without further measures, that with the spread of the new strain, we will see 10 million additional infections in the United States between now and the end of February and during that time, we can easily see 100,000 to 150,000 additional deaths,” he said.

This means it is more important than ever for Americans to comply with the public safety measures recommended by experts throughout the pandemic, namely frequent hand washing, social distancing, and face mask wearing in all public places. He said people should avoid gatherings that bring more than one family together, and tests should be improved.

“Finally, we must redouble our efforts to vaccinate the largest number of people possible,” said Jha.

Read now:There is little chance the vaccine will stop the COVID pandemic this year

Vaccine tracker in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that only 4.8 million people had doses as of 9:00 AM ET on January 5, and only 17 million doses had been distributed. This is well below the recently revised figure of 20 million deliveries promised by President Donald Trump’s administration, far from the original promise of 100 million.

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Trump left states running the vaccine program – and tweeted that it was “Up to the states to manage.” Then call some states “very slow” This means that stressed state health departments, who have already had to deal with testing, keep track of contacts, public information campaigns, and decide when or whether schools or businesses should open or close, are now mandated to address the biggest public health effort in decades.

We see: January will be the worst month for the US epidemic so far with a spike in post-holiday travel

In other news:

• The European Union granted permission for emergency use of the COVID-19 vaccine developed by Moderna Inc. MRNA,
+ 6.49%And the
Jack Denton from MarketWatch reported. The European Commission is expected to quickly grant a permit to the vaccine, allowing it to spread across Europe, where COVID-19 infections remain extremely high and millions of people still live under strict lockdown measures. The prospective disposal of Moderna vaccine comes at a time when governments across Europe face challenges in rolling out the vaccine on a large scale. In France, President Emmanuel Macron is facing national criticism over the vaccination campaign, which is lagging behind its European counterparts.

• The WHO chief said he is “disappointed” that Chinese officials have not completed the permits to allow a team of experts to enter China to check the origins of COVID-19, the Associated Press reported. The Director-General of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said in a rare criticism of Beijing that members of the international scientific team had begun to leave their countries of origin over the past 24 hours as part of an arrangement between the World Health Organization and the Chinese government. Tedros said during a press conference in Geneva: “We learned today that the Chinese officials have not yet completed the necessary permits for the team to arrive in China.” “I am very disappointed by this news, given that two members had already started their journey and others were not able to travel at the last minute, but were in contact with senior Chinese officials,” he said.

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The Netherlands is finally preparing to start the COVID-19 vaccine program, becoming the last country in the European Union to do so. BBC reported. The Dutch government has been criticized for the delay, as the former director of public health, Roel Coutinho, has warned that the country’s “shameful” vaccination strategy “will take lives”. During an emergency debate in Parliament, opposition politicians described this approach as “messy and embarrassing.” Johns Hopkins data shows that the Netherlands has 852,921 confirmed cases of COVID-19, and at least 12,095 people have died.

• The Geneva-based non-governmental organization Press Emblem said on Wednesday that more than 600 journalists have died from COVID-19 since the start of the epidemic, with Latin America topping more than half of the known victims, According to Agence France-Presse. At least 145 deaths were recorded in Asia, of which 94 were in Europe, 23 in North America and 28 in Africa. The Freedom of the Press Group called for journalists to be given priority access to vaccines upon request.

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• CVS Health Corp. CVS,
+ 2.98%
It plans to give the first dose of COVID-19 vaccines at nearly 8,000 skilled nursing facilities in 49 states by January 25, MarketWatch’s Jimmy Lee reports. The program allows both residents and staff at facilities to have one of the two approved COVID-19 vaccines now; Both groups are considered by the United States government to be at risk of contracting the Coronavirus. CVS said it also plans to post national and state vaccination numbers every day at 4 p.m. It also said that while absorption among residents remains “encouragingly high,” the actual number of residents is about 20% to 30% lower than the facility’s expectations that were based on bed counts. The pharmacy chain said: “The initial absorption among employees is low, and it is likely that part is due to the facilities’ desire to organize vaccinations between visits.”

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Latest numbers

Johns Hopkins data showed that the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide jumped to more than 86.7 million on Wednesday, and the death toll rose to 1.9 million. At least 48 million people have recovered from COVID-19.

Brazil has the second-highest number of deaths after the United States at 197,732 and the third in terms of cases, at 7.8 million.

India ranks second in the world with cases of 10.4 million, and third in terms of deaths, at 150,114.

Mexico has the fourth highest death toll at 128,822 and the thirteenth highest death toll at 1.5 million.

The UK has 2.8 million cases and 77,370 deaths, the highest in Europe and the fifth highest in the world.

China, where the virus was first detected late last year, has recorded 96,335 confirmed cases and 4,788 deaths, according to official figures.

See also: Scotland imposes a new lockdown starting at midnight

What does the economy say?

According to the ministry, private sector employers lost 123,000 jobs in December, the first decline since April Abu Dhabi Police National Employment Report, Gregg Rob of MarketWatch reported.

Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected an increase of 60,000 jobs in the private sector in December.

What happened: The job losses were mainly concentrated in retail, entertainment and hospitality.

Private sector service providers created 105,000 jobs in December. Meanwhile, commodity producers have shed 18,000 jobs. Manufacturing lost 21,000 jobs.

By the size of the company, small firms lost 37,000 jobs in the private sector in December and large firms lost 147,000 jobs. Medium-sized firms, defined as firms with 50 to 499 employees, added 37,000 jobs.

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Economists are using the ADP data as a guide to the Labor Department’s employment report, to be released on Friday, which covers government jobs as well as the private sector.

Economists polled by MarketWatch forecast that the government report will show a slowdown in job growth in December with non-farm employment rising just 50,000 last month.

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